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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-09-06T12:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-06T12:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/13013/-1
CME Note: Associated with X9.3 flare from AR 12673.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-07T22:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -142
Dst min. time: 2017-09-08T02:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-08T06:00Z (-3.0h, +3.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2017-09-06T14:30Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1200
Longitude (deg): 15W
Latitude (deg): 10S
Half-angular width (deg): 50

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: DUTY ADVISOR

Lead Time: 17.50 hour(s)
Difference: -7.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2017-09-07T05:00Z

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