CME Scoreboard |
|
Prediction for CME (2017-09-06T12:24:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2017-09-06T12:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/13013/-1 CME Note: Associated with X9.3 flare from AR 12673. CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-07T22:30Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: Max Kp: 8.0 Dst min. in nT: -142 Dst min. time: 2017-09-08T02:00Z Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-08T06:00Z (-3.0h, +3.0h) Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0% Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 8.0 Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Prediction Method Note: Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 2.2 Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2017-09-06T14:30Z Radial velocity (km/s): 1200 Longitude (deg): 15W Latitude (deg): 10S Half-angular width (deg): 50 Notes: Space weather advisor: DUTY ADVISORLead Time: 17.50 hour(s) Difference: -7.50 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2017-09-07T05:00Z |
|
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers. Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy |